新興市場外國直接投資普遍下滑 FDI collapses across emerging markets
青島希尼爾翻譯公司（www.jdzzqp.icu）2015年9月18日獲悉, With economic growth stalling — or in
some cases plummeting — in many of the world’s developing countries,
foreign direct investment appears to be following suit. In times of
economic uncertainty, companies tend to seek out safe havens and will
forfeit the growth opportunities that emerging markets present if these
markets start to look unstable or sluggish. There are early signs that
this trend could be at work.
According to figures from fDi Markets, an FT data service, 97 of 154
countries typically classed as emerging markets have experienced
declines in capital expenditure on greenfield investment projects in the
first six months of this year compared with the same time period last
year. (Eleven of the 154 countries did not have verifiable greenfield
projects recorded last year so were excluded from the comparison.)
In 25 of the 97 countries showing negative growth, capital expenditure
collapsed to zero. Another 42 saw dramatic declines of 50 per cent or
more; a further 22 saw drops of between 20 and 50 per cent between
January-June 2014 and January-June 2015.
FDi has identified 61 developing countries that attracted more than
$500m in greenfield investment in the first half of last year. Of those,
47 saw relative declines in the first half of this year. The fallers
include some of the world’s major FDI markets, such as China (down 26
per cent), Brazil (-65 per cent) and Russia (-46 per cent), as well as a
roll call of important economies in every region, from Hong Kong (-35
per cent), Malaysia (-49 per cent), Philippines (-48 per cent) and South
Korea (-64 per cent) in Asia; to Poland (-21 per cent) and Romania (-17
per cent) in eastern Europe; Ghana (-56 per cent), Kenya (-44 per cent)
and Nigeria (-23 per cent) in Africa; and Argentina (-6 per cent), Chile
(-33 per cent), Colombia (-56 per cent) and Peru (-84 per cent) in Latin
America. Mexico, while witnessing a decline, has fared better than most
of its regional competitors with only a 3 per cent drop.
Violence and security fears are hitting the inflows of countries such as
Iraq (-76 per cent) and Yemen (-100 per cent) and causing a ripple
effect around the region, impacting neighbouring Jordan (-83 per cent)
Lebanon (-97 per cent) and Turkey (-25 per cent). Meanwhile, oil
producers Angola (-99 per cent) and Saudi Arabia (-52 per cent) have
posted declines after large investments by French energy group Total had
boosted the 2014 FDI figures for both countries.
Although the negative percentages outweigh the positives, there are some
growth stories still to be found. India, one of the star performers of
2014, has managed to more than double its midyear investment levels,
attracting $30bn by the end of June compared with $12bn in the first
half of last year. Indonesia has seen a 62 per cent increase in
investment to nearly $14bn, and South Africa, 77 per cent to $3bn.
Vietnam, another FDI star of 2014, is on track to match if not exceed
its blockbuster year, attracting $7.5bn just as it had by the midway
point of last year. The United Arab Emirates is also on par with its
previous performance, attracting $3.5bn.
It may be too soon to speak yet of a genuine emerging markets FDI crash.
Investment announcements sometimes pick up steam in the second half of
the year. One or two large projects can inflate or skew capital
investment data, some of which are based on estimates. And because
greenfield investment decisions are deliberate, slow and long term,
reading too much into the tea leaves about short-term trends can be
risky. However, the sheer number of developing countries showing a clear
downturn in year-on-year investment through the first two quarters of
the year suggests that the broad trend will be extremely difficult if
not impossible to reverse in the final two quarters.